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Iraqi Boomerang

03.10.2007 10:00

Anatoly Lokinov

Everything that happens currently in the Middle East and Central Asia revoices in various corners of the globe. The hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan severely affected the situation in the countries of Central Asia, and the consequences of the war still generate instability and provoke crisis situations.

The alleged strategic goal of the NATO intervention in Iraq was justified by the need to eliminate top-priority threats. According to the American establishment, Baghdad possessed chemical and biological weapons. US Vice President Dick Cheney put the nuclear threat on top and accused late Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein of stable ties with extremist organization Al-Quaeda.

As the main combat activities in Iraq were ceased, the Washington Administration again tied up Al-Quaeda with September 11. However, later the Senate Intelligence Committee found no links between Hussein and September 11 , and recognized his contacts with Al-Quaeda in the 90-s as non-operational. No mass destruction weapon stock has been found. All this discredited the arguments justifying the need of the military strike.

The Committee report said that in October 2002 the judgments of the intelligence community relative to the Iraqi mass destruction weapon development program were mostly erroneous and were not proved with evidence. It seems that the military campaign against Iraq was targeted at further strengthening of the US hegemony in the Middle East and political and strategic reconstruction of this region.

So, what was a prize of the USA? The NATO military operations against Iraq have exacerbated contradictions between the West and Islamic World, aggravated conflicts between the USA and countries standing for the multipolar world. The Iraqi war radically affected the alignment of forces in the neighboring countries of the region, as well as the international relations.

The provoked political, economical and social instability in Central Asia exacerbates the danger of terror that may assert itself by new bloody terrorist attacks. We may only suggest how the Iraqi war may echo with inflow of volunteers to Al-Quaeda not only in the Arab world but also in Pakistan and Indonesia.

The contradiction between the alleged goals of the NATO intervention in Iraq and current developments evokes rather complicated political situations. Based on the example of Iraq other countries may come to an erroneous conclusion that the development of mass destruction weapons is an instrument of deterrence of the American military intervention rather than a cause for declaration of war. Indeed, what if the conflicts with the Iranian and Korean nuclear programmes constitute a kind of response to the intervention in Iraq?

It is also necessary to mention the use of depleted uranium penetrator AP projectiles by the US Army. The consequences of their use are grave. The most heavily uranium-contaminated areas near Basra witness a 3-4-fold increased incidence of premature births, spontaneous aborts, birth-defects in newborns, leukaemia and other cancerous diseases. According to Professor Alexey Yablokov, Adviser of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Ecological Policy Center of Russia, the official medicine denies any connection of these diseases with the uranium contamination but the list of evidence, notably the strictly scientific evidence, is increasing.

Today, as quoted to Dr. Graeme Herd of the Conflict Research Center , Iraq may be defined as ?a failed state? that is completely devastated, suffers from the civil war and has no certain future. Something similar happens in Afghanistan. The developments in this country have also a negative impact on the situation in other countries. The consequences of war in Afghanistan resulted in aggravating instability in Central and South Eastern Asia. The US leadership concentrates on the hunt for Al-Quaeda leaders and ignores any measures to settle the political situation in this explosive region.

Washington should be deeper involved in the decision-making, in so doing the developed strategy with respect to the Afghanistan?s neighbors should be aimed at convincing the states to implement the respective political and economical reforms. The drug trafficking, military administration, emergence of new terrorist organizations, etc. fail to give ground to expect that in the near future Afghanistan would become a more or less stable state. Simultaneously, the prospects for eventual creation of a weak but still functioning state also seems rather doubtful in view of growing corruption generated by drug-trafficking and countrywide strengthening of Taliban. The aggravating trend of drug-business penetration into the political establishment ignored by NATO, may finally undermine all fundamentals and result in emergence of a drug-and-terror state.

The echo of war is still alive. It is confirmed with TV news and newspaper publications. The non-stop guerilla warfare in Iraq, events in ?Lal Masjid? (the Red Mosque) in Pakistan, kidnapping of Korean hostages in Afghanistan. What comes next? In the worst case a wave of all-out indignation may flood the Islamic and Arab world, and the terror will become a political instrument for solution of conflicts. And the United States will not escape if many militant groups would use this instrument to unleash a real anti-American war.

Instability in Central and South Eastern Asia, overthrow of state regime or civil disturbances easily create lots of opportunities for Al-Quaeda to revive. The war on terror entered a more complicated and sophisticated phase that implies efforts to cope with the political and economical instability weakening the region. In these conditions, the responsibility for solution of emerging or already emerged problems is rested on the entire international community. No errors are admissible, the point is that the stability of a huge region and may be that of the whole world is set on stake.